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Stephen Wells v Mark Castle (Wed 16 Oct 2013)

Match won by Stephen Wells. Result: 15-7,15-13,17-15.

Starting level for Stephen Wells: 1,172, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Mark Castle: 1,166, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Stephen Wells to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Mark Castle.

Stephen Wells won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Wells played 41% better than Mark Castle in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Wells actually played at a level of 1,389 and Mark Castle at a level of 984. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Wells changes to +18% and Mark Castle changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Wells becomes +9.7% and for Mark Castle becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Stephen Wells is +7.3% and for Mark Castle is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Castle is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Wells: 76%, Mark Castle: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Wells: 64%, Mark Castle: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Wells: 1,256, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mark Castle: 1,109, level confidence: 73%.