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Matt Mulara v Jon Miles (Wed 16 Oct 2013)

Match won by Matt Mulara. Result: 15-8,16-14,15-13.

Starting level for Matt Mulara: 2,351, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Jon Miles: 1,982, level confidence: 10%.
Matt Mulara to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Jon Miles.

Matt Mulara won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Mulara played 39% better than Jon Miles in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Mulara actually played at a level of 2,547 and Jon Miles at a level of 1,830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Mulara changes to +1.3% and Jon Miles changes to -7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Mulara becomes +1% and for Jon Miles becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Matt Mulara is +0.7% and for Jon Miles is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Mulara: 75%, Jon Miles: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Mulara: 70%, Jon Miles: 29%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Mulara: 2,365, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Jon Miles: 1,921, level confidence: 29%.