SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Joe Elfasi v Chris Keating (Wed 16 Oct 2013)

Match won by Joe Elfasi. Result: 15-5,15-10,15-7.

Starting level for Joe Elfasi: 2,207, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Keating: 1,609, level confidence: 22%.
Joe Elfasi to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Chris Keating.

Joe Elfasi won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Elfasi played 105% better than Chris Keating in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Elfasi actually played at a level of 2,695 and Chris Keating at a level of 1,318. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Elfasi changes to +5.5% and Chris Keating changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Elfasi becomes +3.1% and for Chris Keating becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Joe Elfasi is +2.4% and for Chris Keating is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Keating is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Elfasi: 85%, Chris Keating: 46%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Elfasi: 70%, Chris Keating: 38%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Elfasi: 2,256, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Chris Keating: 1,558, level confidence: 38%.