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Nick Henderson v Ian Taylor (Thu 17 Oct 2013)

Match won by Nick Henderson. Result: 15-12,12-15,11-15,15-9,15-7.

Starting level for Nick Henderson: 1,562, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,212, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nick Henderson to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Ian Taylor.

Nick Henderson won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Henderson played 12% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

As Nick Henderson has played below his allowed range at 1,421, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Henderson would normally have been playing at level 1,529 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Henderson changes to -4.2% and Ian Taylor changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Henderson becomes -3.1% and for Ian Taylor becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Nick Henderson is -2.3% and for Ian Taylor is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Henderson: 66%, Ian Taylor: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Henderson: 61%, Ian Taylor: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Henderson: 1,525, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,234, level confidence: 85%.