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Andrew Humphries v Cesar Ramirez-Molina (Thu 17 Oct 2013)

Match won by Cesar Ramirez-Molina. Result: 11-15,15-3,8-15,15-6,13-15.

Starting level for Andrew Humphries: 1,760, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,277, level confidence: 54%.
Andrew Humphries to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.

Cesar Ramirez-Molina won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Ramirez-Molina played 4% better than Andrew Humphries in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Ramirez-Molina actually played at a level of 1,531 and Andrew Humphries at a level of 1,468. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +17% and Andrew Humphries changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +8.7% and for Andrew Humphries becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +6.5% and for Andrew Humphries is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 74%, Andrew Humphries: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 62%, Andrew Humphries: 69%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Humphries: 1,718, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,358, level confidence: 62%.