Merrill Trueman v Sue Borella (Mon 04 Nov 2013)
Match won by Merrill Trueman. Result: 15-7,15-12,15-5.
Starting level for
Merrill Trueman:
182, level confidence: 16%.
Starting level for
Sue Borella:
114, level confidence: 10%.
Merrill Trueman to win as she is currently playing
60% better than Sue Borella.
Merrill Trueman won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Merrill Trueman played
88% better than Sue Borella in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Merrill Trueman actually played at a level of
197 and Sue Borella at a level of
105. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Merrill Trueman changes to +4.1% and Sue Borella changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Merrill Trueman becomes +3.6% and for Sue Borella becomes -4.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Merrill Trueman is +2.7% and for Sue Borella is -3.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Merrill Trueman: 40%, Sue Borella: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Merrill Trueman: 37%, Sue Borella: 29%.
Final level for Merrill Trueman:
187, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Sue Borella:
110, level confidence: 29%.