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Carol Booth v Alison Horne (Mon 04 Nov 2013)

Match won by Alison Horne. Result: 7-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Carol Booth: 226, level confidence: 30%.
Starting level for Alison Horne: 349, level confidence: 26%.
Alison Horne to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Carol Booth.

Alison Horne won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alison Horne played 48% better than Carol Booth in this match.

In this case, Alison Horne played at level 335 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Carol Booth is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alison Horne: 51%, Carol Booth: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alison Horne: 50%, Carol Booth: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carol Booth: 226, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Alison Horne: 348, level confidence: 50%.