Louisa Dalwood v Anne-Maree Dunn (Mon 04 Nov 2013)
Match won by Louisa Dalwood. Result: 15-9,15-2,15-5.
Starting level for
Louisa Dalwood:
436, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
Anne-Maree Dunn:
177, level confidence: 20%.
Louisa Dalwood to win as she is currently playing
146% better than Anne-Maree Dunn.
Louisa Dalwood won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Louisa Dalwood played
181% better than Anne-Maree Dunn in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Louisa Dalwood actually played at a level of
466 and Anne-Maree Dunn at a level of
166. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood changes to +4.3% and Anne-Maree Dunn changes to -2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood becomes +3.7% and for Anne-Maree Dunn becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood is +2.7% and for Anne-Maree Dunn is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Louisa Dalwood: 32%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 44%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Louisa Dalwood: 30%, Anne-Maree Dunn: 41%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Louisa Dalwood:
447, level confidence: 30%.
Final level for Anne-Maree Dunn:
174, level confidence: 41%.