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Emma Booth v Carmel Horgan (Mon 04 Nov 2013)

Match won by Emma Booth. Result: 15-13,15-12,11-15,15-13.

Starting level for Emma Booth: 180, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Carmel Horgan: 273, level confidence: 49%.
Carmel Horgan to win as she is currently playing 52% better than Emma Booth.

Emma Booth won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Booth played 19% better than Carmel Horgan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emma Booth actually played at a level of 241 and Carmel Horgan at a level of 204. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Booth changes to +27% and Carmel Horgan changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Booth becomes +14.3% and for Carmel Horgan becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Emma Booth is +10.8% and for Carmel Horgan is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Booth: 32%, Carmel Horgan: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Booth: 24%, Carmel Horgan: 52%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emma Booth: 199, level confidence: 24%.
Final level for Carmel Horgan: 267, level confidence: 52%.