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Pete Burdett v Robin McCorquodale (Tue 05 Nov 2013)

Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 15-12,15-5,15-6.

Starting level for Pete Burdett: 2,929, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robin McCorquodale: 2,045, level confidence: 60%.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Robin McCorquodale.

Pete Burdett won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played 96% better than Robin McCorquodale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pete Burdett actually played at a level of 3,423 and Robin McCorquodale at a level of 1,750. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to +11% and Robin McCorquodale changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes +4.8% and for Robin McCorquodale becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is +3.6% and for Robin McCorquodale is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 85%, Robin McCorquodale: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 73%, Robin McCorquodale: 66%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Pete Burdett: 3,030, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,996, level confidence: 66%.