Chris Lynam v Ryan Mays (Tue 05 Nov 2013)
Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 14-16,15-8,28-26,15-10.
Starting level for
Chris Lynam:
2,633, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ryan Mays:
2,402, level confidence: 42%.
Chris Lynam to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Ryan Mays.
Chris Lynam won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played
23% better than Ryan Mays in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of
2,793 and Ryan Mays at a level of
2,264. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +3% and Ryan Mays changes to -5.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +2.1% and for Ryan Mays becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +1.6% and for Ryan Mays is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 89%, Ryan Mays: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 84%, Ryan Mays: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Chris Lynam:
2,671, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Ryan Mays:
2,343, level confidence: 61%.