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Keith Timms v George Willis (Thu 07 Nov 2013)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 6,813, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for George Willis: 5,113, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 33% better than George Willis.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 120% better than George Willis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of 8,754 and George Willis at a level of 3,979. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +24% and George Willis changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +7% and for George Willis becomes -4.4%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change.

Given George Willis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +4.9% and for George Willis is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 69%, George Willis: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 54%, George Willis: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 7,134, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for George Willis: 4,946, level confidence: 72%.