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Patrick Sockett v Craig Dancy (Thu 07 Nov 2013)

Match won by Craig Dancy. Result: 13-15,15-13,11-15,12-15.

Starting level for Patrick Sockett: 1,063, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Craig Dancy: 1,103, level confidence: 56%.
Craig Dancy to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Patrick Sockett.

Craig Dancy won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Dancy played 21% better than Patrick Sockett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Craig Dancy actually played at a level of 1,192 and Patrick Sockett at a level of 983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Dancy changes to +8% and Patrick Sockett changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Dancy becomes +5.2% and for Patrick Sockett becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Craig Dancy is +3.9% and for Patrick Sockett is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Dancy: 75%, Patrick Sockett: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Dancy: 69%, Patrick Sockett: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Sockett: 1,027, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Craig Dancy: 1,145, level confidence: 69%.