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Ryan Bird v Andy Davis (Thu 07 Nov 2013)

Match won by Ryan Bird. Result: 15-10,15-4,15-6.

Starting level for Ryan Bird: 1,596, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Andy Davis: 888, level confidence: 52%.
Ryan Bird to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Andy Davis.

Ryan Bird won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Bird played 125% better than Andy Davis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Bird actually played at a level of 1,786 and Andy Davis at a level of 794. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Bird changes to +7.1% and Andy Davis changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Bird becomes +4.2% and for Andy Davis becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Ryan Bird is +3.1% and for Andy Davis is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Bird: 80%, Andy Davis: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Bird: 72%, Andy Davis: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Bird: 1,643, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Andy Davis: 850, level confidence: 65%.