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Gareth Jones v Simon Cohen (Thu 07 Nov 2013)

Match won by Gareth Jones. Result: 6-15,15-6,15-13,15-10.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,367, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Cohen: 1,156, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Gareth Jones to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Simon Cohen.

Gareth Jones won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Jones played 22% better than Simon Cohen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gareth Jones actually played at a level of 1,388 and Simon Cohen at a level of 1,138. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Jones changes to +1.4% and Simon Cohen changes to -1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Jones becomes +1.3% and for Simon Cohen becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Gareth Jones is +1% and for Simon Cohen is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Jones: 86%, Simon Cohen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Jones: 85%, Simon Cohen: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,378, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Simon Cohen: 1,143, level confidence: 86%.