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Nicky Seabrook v Merrill Trueman (Mon 11 Nov 2013)

Match won by Nicky Seabrook. Result: 15-13,15-7,11-15,11-15,15-13.

Starting level for Nicky Seabrook: 221, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Merrill Trueman: 187, level confidence: 36%.
Nicky Seabrook to win as she is currently playing 18% better than Merrill Trueman.

Nicky Seabrook won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicky Seabrook played 9% better than Merrill Trueman in this match.

As Nicky Seabrook has played below her allowed range at 210, her level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Nicky Seabrook would normally have been playing at level 219 (based on typical behaviour), Merrill Trueman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.7%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicky Seabrook changes to -2% and Merrill Trueman changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicky Seabrook becomes -2% and for Merrill Trueman becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Nicky Seabrook is -1.5% and for Merrill Trueman is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicky Seabrook: 71%, Merrill Trueman: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicky Seabrook: 68%, Merrill Trueman: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nicky Seabrook: 217, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Merrill Trueman: 191, level confidence: 58%.