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Robin McCorquodale v Ross Proudfoot (Tue 12 Nov 2013)

Match won by Robin McCorquodale. Result: 12-15,19-17,15-10,10-15,15-13.

Starting level for Robin McCorquodale: 1,996, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ross Proudfoot: 2,338, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ross Proudfoot to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Robin McCorquodale.

Robin McCorquodale won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Robin McCorquodale played 8% better than Ross Proudfoot in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Robin McCorquodale actually played at a level of 2,244 and Ross Proudfoot at a level of 2,080. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale changes to +11% and Ross Proudfoot changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale becomes +5.4% and for Ross Proudfoot becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Robin McCorquodale is +4.1% and for Ross Proudfoot is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Robin McCorquodale: 80%, Ross Proudfoot: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Robin McCorquodale: 71%, Ross Proudfoot: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robin McCorquodale: 2,074, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ross Proudfoot: 2,257, level confidence: 76%.