Simon Totten v Martin Harding (Tue 12 Nov 2013)
Match won by Simon Totten. Result: 15-10,15-8,10-15,15-8.
Starting level for
Simon Totten:
1,867, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Martin Harding:
1,929, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Martin Harding to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Simon Totten.
Simon Totten won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Totten played
28% better than Martin Harding in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Totten actually played at a level of
2,147 and Martin Harding at a level of
1,677. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Totten changes to +14% and Martin Harding changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Totten becomes +6.3% and for Martin Harding becomes -6.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Simon Totten is +4.8% and for Martin Harding is -5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Totten: 90%, Martin Harding: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Totten: 79%, Martin Harding: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Simon Totten:
1,953, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Martin Harding:
1,835, level confidence: 75%.