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Tom Dupuy v Pete Burdett (Tue 12 Nov 2013)

Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 6-15,15-12,10-15,6-15.

Starting level for Tom Dupuy: 2,136, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Pete Burdett: 3,030, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Tom Dupuy.

Pete Burdett won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played 35% better than Tom Dupuy in this match.

In this case, Pete Burdett played at level 2,896 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pete Burdett would normally have been playing at level 2,917 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Dupuy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to 0% and Tom Dupuy changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes 0% and for Tom Dupuy becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is 0% and for Tom Dupuy is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 84%, Tom Dupuy: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 82%, Tom Dupuy: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Dupuy: 2,140, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Pete Burdett: 3,025, level confidence: 82%.