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Roshan Chhatralia v David Gandolfo (Wed 13 Nov 2013)

Match won by Roshan Chhatralia. Result: 15-8,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Roshan Chhatralia: 2,250, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for David Gandolfo: 2,272, level confidence: 63%.
David Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Roshan Chhatralia.

Roshan Chhatralia won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Roshan Chhatralia played 55% better than David Gandolfo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Roshan Chhatralia actually played at a level of 2,816 and David Gandolfo at a level of 1,815. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Roshan Chhatralia changes to +25% and David Gandolfo changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Roshan Chhatralia becomes +9.8% and for David Gandolfo becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Roshan Chhatralia is +7.4% and for David Gandolfo is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Gandolfo is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Roshan Chhatralia: 70%, David Gandolfo: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Roshan Chhatralia: 56%, David Gandolfo: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roshan Chhatralia: 2,412, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for David Gandolfo: 2,161, level confidence: 63%.