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Tim Bloomer v Adam Clark (Wed 13 Nov 2013)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-5.

Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 3,385, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Clark: 1,686, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Adam Clark.

Tim Bloomer won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 48% better than Adam Clark in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tim Bloomer was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,507 and 3,385 without affecting his level.

As Tim Bloomer has played below his allowed range at 2,504, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Bloomer would normally have been playing at level 2,962 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Clark played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to 0% and Adam Clark changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes -0% and for Adam Clark becomes +3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is 0% and for Adam Clark is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 85%, Adam Clark: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 73%, Adam Clark: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Bloomer: 3,379, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Adam Clark: 1,728, level confidence: 76%.