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Reuben Phillips v Will John (Thu 14 Nov 2013)

Match won by Will John. Result: 3-11,11-7,10-12,9-11.

Starting level for Reuben Phillips: 12,127, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Will John: 7,019, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Reuben Phillips to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Will John.

Will John won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Will John played 25% better than Reuben Phillips in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Will John actually played at a level of 10,305 and Reuben Phillips at a level of 8,260. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Will John changes to +34% and Reuben Phillips changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Will John becomes +9.1% and for Reuben Phillips becomes -7.3%.

Given Will John's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Reuben Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Will John is +6.3% and for Reuben Phillips is -4.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Will John: 84%, Reuben Phillips: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Will John: 57%, Reuben Phillips: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Reuben Phillips: 11,604, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Will John: 7,452, level confidence: 57%.