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Greg Proudfoot v Matt Mulara (Thu 14 Nov 2013)

Match won by Greg Proudfoot. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Greg Proudfoot: 2,842, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Matt Mulara: 2,190, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Greg Proudfoot to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Matt Mulara.

Greg Proudfoot won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 28% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Proudfoot played 26% better than Matt Mulara in this match.

In this case, Greg Proudfoot played at level 2,770 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Greg Proudfoot would normally have been playing at level 2,779 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Mulara played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Proudfoot changes to 0% and Matt Mulara changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Proudfoot becomes 0% and for Matt Mulara becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Greg Proudfoot is 0% and for Matt Mulara is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Proudfoot: 74%, Matt Mulara: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Proudfoot: 73%, Matt Mulara: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Proudfoot: 2,838, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Matt Mulara: 2,189, level confidence: 87%.