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Louisa Dalwood v Isobel Smith (Mon 18 Nov 2013)

Match won by Louisa Dalwood. Result: 15-4,15-12,15-12.

Starting level for Louisa Dalwood: 447, level confidence: 28%.
Starting level for Isobel Smith: 534, level confidence: 53%.
Isobel Smith to win as she is currently playing 19% better than Louisa Dalwood.

Louisa Dalwood won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Louisa Dalwood played 61% better than Isobel Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Louisa Dalwood actually played at a level of 619 and Isobel Smith at a level of 385. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood changes to +35% and Isobel Smith changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood becomes +17.8% and for Isobel Smith becomes -9.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Louisa Dalwood is +13% and for Isobel Smith is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Louisa Dalwood is limited to +10% and Isobel Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Louisa Dalwood: 53%, Isobel Smith: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Louisa Dalwood: 38%, Isobel Smith: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Louisa Dalwood: 491, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Isobel Smith: 508, level confidence: 52%.