Joanne Ravenhill v Paula Shepherd (Mon 18 Nov 2013)
Match won by Paula Shepherd. Result: 15-11,10-15,12-15,15-6,11-15.
Starting level for
Joanne Ravenhill:
198, level confidence: 23%.
Starting level for
Paula Shepherd:
346, level confidence: 64%.
Paula Shepherd to win as he is currently playing
75% better than Joanne Ravenhill.
Paula Shepherd won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paula Shepherd played
7% better than Joanne Ravenhill in this match.
As Paula Shepherd has played below his allowed range at 246, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Paula Shepherd would normally have been playing at level 317 (based on typical behaviour), Joanne Ravenhill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paula Shepherd changes to -4% and Joanne Ravenhill changes to +16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paula Shepherd becomes -3.5% and for Joanne Ravenhill becomes +9.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Paula Shepherd is -2.6% and for Joanne Ravenhill is +7.1%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paula Shepherd: 80%, Joanne Ravenhill: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paula Shepherd: 62%, Joanne Ravenhill: 38%.
Final level for Joanne Ravenhill:
212, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Paula Shepherd:
337, level confidence: 62%.