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Jordan Ryan v Martin White (Tue 19 Nov 2013)

Match won by Jordan Ryan. Result: 15-4,19-17,6-15,16-14.

Starting level for Jordan Ryan: 2,758, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,233, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Jordan Ryan to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Martin White.

Jordan Ryan won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jordan Ryan played 21% better than Martin White in this match.

In this case, Jordan Ryan played at level 2,707 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jordan Ryan would normally have been playing at level 2,718 (based on typical behaviour), Martin White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan changes to 0% and Martin White changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jordan Ryan becomes 0% and for Martin White becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Jordan Ryan is 0% and for Martin White is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jordan Ryan: 85%, Martin White: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jordan Ryan: 84%, Martin White: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Ryan: 2,754, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,234, level confidence: 90%.