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Keith Price v Chris Roper (Tue 19 Nov 2013)

Match won by Keith Price. Result: 15-12,15-7,13-15,15-9.

Starting level for Keith Price: 2,399, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,610, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Keith Price to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Chris Roper.

Keith Price won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Price played 28% better than Chris Roper in this match.

As Keith Price has played below his allowed range at 2,109, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Price would normally have been playing at level 2,286 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Roper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Price changes to -1.7% and Chris Roper changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Price becomes -1.2% and for Chris Roper becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Keith Price is -0.9% and for Chris Roper is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Price: 84%, Chris Roper: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Price: 78%, Chris Roper: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Price: 2,373, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Chris Roper: 1,642, level confidence: 81%.