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Gary Wood v Tom Hannah (Tue 19 Nov 2013)

Match won by Tom Hannah. Result: 7-15,15-11,6-15,14-16.

Starting level for Gary Wood: 1,378, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Tom Hannah: 2,264, level confidence: 66%.
Tom Hannah to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Gary Wood.

Tom Hannah won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Hannah played 29% better than Gary Wood in this match.

As Tom Hannah has played below his allowed range at 1,850, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Hannah would normally have been playing at level 2,110 (based on typical behaviour), Gary Wood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 7.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Hannah changes to -3% and Gary Wood changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Hannah becomes -2.2% and for Gary Wood becomes +4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Hannah is -1.6% and for Gary Wood is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Hannah: 81%, Gary Wood: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Hannah: 72%, Gary Wood: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Wood: 1,421, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Tom Hannah: 2,224, level confidence: 72%.