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Matt Mulara v Raf Shergold (Wed 20 Nov 2013)

Match won by Matt Mulara. Result: 15-11,19-17,15-10.

Starting level for Matt Mulara: 2,274, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raf Shergold: 2,218, level confidence: 59%.
Matt Mulara to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Raf Shergold.

Matt Mulara won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Mulara played 38% better than Raf Shergold in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Mulara actually played at a level of 2,634 and Raf Shergold at a level of 1,915. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Mulara changes to +13% and Raf Shergold changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Mulara becomes +5.6% and for Raf Shergold becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Matt Mulara is +4.2% and for Raf Shergold is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Mulara: 86%, Raf Shergold: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Mulara: 74%, Raf Shergold: 66%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Mulara: 2,366, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Raf Shergold: 2,162, level confidence: 66%.