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Peter Newman v Tim Bloomer (Wed 20 Nov 2013)

Match won by Tim Bloomer. Result: 12-15,11-15,15-5,15-9,14-16.

Starting level for Peter Newman: 2,282, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Bloomer: 3,379, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Tim Bloomer to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Peter Newman.

Tim Bloomer won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Bloomer played 5% better than Peter Newman in this match.

As Tim Bloomer has played below his allowed range at 2,698, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Bloomer would normally have been playing at level 3,225 (based on typical behaviour), Peter Newman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.3% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer changes to -10.3% and Peter Newman changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Bloomer becomes -4.3% and for Peter Newman becomes +5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tim Bloomer is -3.2% and for Peter Newman is +4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Bloomer: 84%, Peter Newman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Bloomer: 71%, Peter Newman: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Newman: 2,377, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Tim Bloomer: 3,270, level confidence: 71%.