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Craig Basham v Jeff Hobden (Wed 20 Nov 2013)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 6-15,10-15,9-15.

Starting level for Craig Basham: 1,820, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 2,452, level confidence: 64%.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Craig Basham.

Jeff Hobden won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 80% better than Craig Basham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeff Hobden actually played at a level of 2,834 and Craig Basham at a level of 1,575. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to +13% and Craig Basham changes to -10.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes +5.7% and for Craig Basham becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is +4.3% and for Craig Basham is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 80%, Craig Basham: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 69%, Craig Basham: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Basham: 1,749, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden: 2,553, level confidence: 69%.