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Peter Iszatt v Andrew Humphries (Thu 21 Nov 2013)

Match won by Andrew Humphries. Result: 12-15,8-15,3-15.

Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,595, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Andrew Humphries: 1,811, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Andrew Humphries to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Peter Iszatt.

Andrew Humphries won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Humphries played 96% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Humphries actually played at a level of 2,377 and Peter Iszatt at a level of 1,215. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries changes to +23% and Peter Iszatt changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Humphries becomes +9.7% and for Peter Iszatt becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Humphries is +7.3% and for Peter Iszatt is -9.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Iszatt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Humphries: 88%, Peter Iszatt: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Humphries: 67%, Peter Iszatt: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,524, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Andrew Humphries: 1,940, level confidence: 67%.