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Robert Dadds v Anthony Graham (Thu 21 Nov 2013)

Match won by Anthony Graham. Result: 10-12,6-11,8-11.

Starting level for Robert Dadds: 6,048, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Anthony Graham: 17,795, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Anthony Graham to win as he is currently playing 194% better than Robert Dadds.

Anthony Graham won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Graham played 46% better than Robert Dadds in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anthony Graham was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,662 and 17,795 without affecting his level.

As Anthony Graham has played below his allowed range at 9,239, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Anthony Graham would normally have been playing at level 13,565 (based on typical behaviour), Robert Dadds played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Graham changes to -2% and Robert Dadds changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Graham becomes -0.9% and for Robert Dadds becomes +4.4%.

Given Anthony Graham's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Robert Dadds's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Anthony Graham is -0.5% and for Robert Dadds is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Graham: 85%, Robert Dadds: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Graham: 60%, Robert Dadds: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robert Dadds: 6,232, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Anthony Graham: 17,682, level confidence: 60%.