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Adie Viljoen v Martin White (Tue 26 Nov 2013)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 15-13,12-15,15-12,5-15,7-15.

Starting level for Adie Viljoen: 2,569, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin White: 2,233, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Adie Viljoen to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Martin White.

Martin White won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 15% better than Adie Viljoen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,567 and Adie Viljoen at a level of 2,234. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +12% and Adie Viljoen changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +5.4% and for Adie Viljoen becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Martin White is +4.1% and for Adie Viljoen is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 93%, Adie Viljoen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 81%, Adie Viljoen: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adie Viljoen: 2,459, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Martin White: 2,321, level confidence: 81%.