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Gary Wood v Gary Spindler (Tue 26 Nov 2013)

Match won by Gary Spindler. Result: 15-8,11-15,13-15,9-15.

Starting level for Gary Wood: 1,421, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Gary Spindler: 1,781, level confidence: 42%.
Gary Spindler to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Gary Wood.

Gary Spindler won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Spindler played 20% better than Gary Wood in this match.

As Gary Spindler has played below his allowed range at 1,711, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Gary Spindler would normally have been playing at level 1,751 (based on typical behaviour), Gary Wood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Spindler changes to 0% and Gary Wood changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Spindler becomes -0.1% and for Gary Wood becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Gary Spindler is 0% and for Gary Wood is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Spindler: 65%, Gary Wood: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Spindler: 63%, Gary Wood: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Wood: 1,426, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Gary Spindler: 1,776, level confidence: 63%.