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Patrick Stewart v Mike Lindores (Wed 27 Nov 2013)

Match won by Patrick Stewart. Result: 15-5,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Patrick Stewart: 1,257, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Mike Lindores: 1,209, level confidence: 58%.
Patrick Stewart to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Mike Lindores.

Patrick Stewart won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Stewart played 125% better than Mike Lindores in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Stewart actually played at a level of 1,849 and Mike Lindores at a level of 822. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Stewart changes to +46% and Mike Lindores changes to -5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Stewart becomes +20.4% and for Mike Lindores becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Patrick Stewart is +15% and for Mike Lindores is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Stewart: 32%, Mike Lindores: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Stewart: 21%, Mike Lindores: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Stewart: 1,443, level confidence: 21%.
Final level for Mike Lindores: 1,172, level confidence: 52%.