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Dave Cooper v Matt Steele (Wed 27 Nov 2013)

Match won by Dave Cooper. Result: 15-5,15-13,11-15,4-15,15-9.

Starting level for Dave Cooper: 1,590, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Matt Steele: 1,609, level confidence: 67%.
Matt Steele to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Dave Cooper.

Dave Cooper won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Cooper played 9% better than Matt Steele in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Cooper actually played at a level of 1,668 and Matt Steele at a level of 1,533. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Cooper changes to +4.9% and Matt Steele changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Cooper becomes +3.3% and for Matt Steele becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Dave Cooper is +2.5% and for Matt Steele is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Cooper: 78%, Matt Steele: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Cooper: 75%, Matt Steele: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Cooper: 1,627, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Matt Steele: 1,570, level confidence: 78%.