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Paul Starkey v Nick Cooper (Wed 27 Nov 2013)

Match won by Paul Starkey. Result: 15-12,12-15,15-11,16-14.

Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,389, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Cooper: 1,038, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Paul Starkey to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Nick Cooper.

Paul Starkey won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Starkey played 21% better than Nick Cooper in this match.

As Paul Starkey has played below his allowed range at 1,278, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Starkey would normally have been playing at level 1,351 (based on typical behaviour), Nick Cooper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Starkey changes to -1.9% and Nick Cooper changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Starkey becomes -1.6% and for Nick Cooper becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Paul Starkey is -1.2% and for Nick Cooper is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Starkey: 89%, Nick Cooper: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Starkey: 84%, Nick Cooper: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,370, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nick Cooper: 1,061, level confidence: 85%.