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Nev Rimes v Rob Twilley (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Rob Twilley. Result: 16-14,10-15,8-15,15-12,12-15.

Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,816, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Rob Twilley: 1,252, level confidence: 69%.
Nev Rimes to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Rob Twilley.

Rob Twilley won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Twilley played 12% better than Nev Rimes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Twilley actually played at a level of 1,593 and Nev Rimes at a level of 1,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Twilley changes to +22% and Nev Rimes changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Twilley becomes +11% and for Nev Rimes becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Rob Twilley is +8.3% and for Nev Rimes is -7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nev Rimes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Twilley: 83%, Nev Rimes: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Twilley: 65%, Nev Rimes: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,753, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Rob Twilley: 1,354, level confidence: 65%.