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Mike Gregory v Tom Power (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Tom Power. Result: 2-11,11-7,9-11,11-8,9-11.

Starting level for Mike Gregory: 6,938, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Tom Power: 7,323, level confidence: 49%.
Tom Power to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mike Gregory.

Tom Power won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Power played 11% better than Mike Gregory in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Power actually played at a level of 7,512 and Mike Gregory at a level of 6,763. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Power changes to +2.5% and Mike Gregory changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Power becomes +1.3% and for Mike Gregory becomes -1%.

Given Tom Power's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Mike Gregory's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Tom Power is +0.9% and for Mike Gregory is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Power: 70%, Mike Gregory: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Power: 68%, Mike Gregory: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Gregory: 6,879, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Tom Power: 7,380, level confidence: 68%.