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Patrick Sockett v Andy Davis (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Patrick Sockett. Result: 15-10,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Patrick Sockett: 974, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Andy Davis: 808, level confidence: 55%.
Patrick Sockett to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Andy Davis.

Patrick Sockett won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Sockett played 35% better than Andy Davis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick Sockett actually played at a level of 1,030 and Andy Davis at a level of 764. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Sockett changes to +4.3% and Andy Davis changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Sockett becomes +3.7% and for Andy Davis becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Patrick Sockett is +2.7% and for Andy Davis is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Sockett: 82%, Andy Davis: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Sockett: 77%, Andy Davis: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Patrick Sockett: 999, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Andy Davis: 783, level confidence: 70%.