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Julian Webb v Nick Newson (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Julian Webb. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Julian Webb: 1,199, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Newson: 1,069, level confidence: 68%.
Julian Webb to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Nick Newson.

Julian Webb won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Webb played 52% better than Nick Newson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julian Webb actually played at a level of 1,394 and Nick Newson at a level of 919. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Webb changes to +13% and Nick Newson changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Webb becomes +7.5% and for Nick Newson becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Julian Webb is +5.6% and for Nick Newson is -6.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Webb: 88%, Nick Newson: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Webb: 76%, Nick Newson: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Webb: 1,264, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Nick Newson: 1,003, level confidence: 71%.