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Paul Cooper v Steve Morgan (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Steve Morgan. Result: 8-15,15-12,7-15,10-15.

Starting level for Paul Cooper: 1,166, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Morgan: 1,256, level confidence: 68%.
Steve Morgan to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Paul Cooper.

Steve Morgan won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Morgan played 31% better than Paul Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Morgan actually played at a level of 1,384 and Paul Cooper at a level of 1,058. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Morgan changes to +9.8% and Paul Cooper changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Morgan becomes +5.8% and for Paul Cooper becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Steve Morgan is +4.3% and for Paul Cooper is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Morgan: 82%, Paul Cooper: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Morgan: 75%, Paul Cooper: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Cooper: 1,140, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Steve Morgan: 1,308, level confidence: 75%.