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Ian Collin v Peter Iszatt (Thu 28 Nov 2013)

Match won by Ian Collin. Result: 15-6,15-12,18-16.

Starting level for Ian Collin: 1,550, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Iszatt: 1,524, level confidence: 58%.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Peter Iszatt.

Ian Collin won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Collin played 46% better than Peter Iszatt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Collin actually played at a level of 1,855 and Peter Iszatt at a level of 1,273. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Collin changes to +15% and Peter Iszatt changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Collin becomes +7.3% and for Peter Iszatt becomes -9.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Ian Collin is +5.5% and for Peter Iszatt is -6.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Iszatt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Collin: 87%, Peter Iszatt: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Collin: 73%, Peter Iszatt: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Collin: 1,633, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Iszatt: 1,449, level confidence: 63%.