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Jon McComish v Colin Young (Tue 03 Dec 2013)

Match won by Jon McComish. Result: 7-15,15-4,15-6,15-8.

Starting level for Jon McComish: 1,752, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Colin Young: 1,042, level confidence: 39%.
Jon McComish to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Colin Young.

Jon McComish won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon McComish played 36% better than Colin Young in this match.

As Jon McComish has played below his allowed range at 1,444, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Jon McComish would normally have been playing at level 1,623 (based on typical behaviour), Colin Young played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon McComish changes to -0.9% and Colin Young changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon McComish becomes -0.7% and for Colin Young becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Jon McComish is -0.5% and for Colin Young is +3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon McComish: 85%, Colin Young: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon McComish: 76%, Colin Young: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jon McComish: 1,740, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Colin Young: 1,073, level confidence: 56%.