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Nick Cooper v Barry Sturgeon (Wed 04 Dec 2013)

Match won by Barry Sturgeon. Result: 10-15,7-15,7-15.

Starting level for Nick Cooper: 1,061, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,503, level confidence: 58%.
Barry Sturgeon to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Nick Cooper.

Barry Sturgeon won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barry Sturgeon played 88% better than Nick Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Barry Sturgeon actually played at a level of 1,729 and Nick Cooper at a level of 922. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon changes to +12% and Nick Cooper changes to -8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon becomes +6.5% and for Nick Cooper becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Barry Sturgeon is +4.8% and for Nick Cooper is -4.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barry Sturgeon: 76%, Nick Cooper: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barry Sturgeon: 66%, Nick Cooper: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Cooper: 1,017, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Barry Sturgeon: 1,573, level confidence: 66%.