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Andrew Armstrong v Jon Smith Squire (Thu 05 Dec 2013)

Match won by Andrew Armstrong. Result: 15-10,15-6,15-6.

Starting level for Andrew Armstrong: 2,375, level confidence: 25%.
Starting level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,460, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Andrew Armstrong to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Jon Smith Squire.

Andrew Armstrong won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Armstrong played 105% better than Jon Smith Squire in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Armstrong actually played at a level of 2,663 and Jon Smith Squire at a level of 1,302. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.4% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong changes to +9.4% and Jon Smith Squire changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong becomes +4.4% and for Jon Smith Squire becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Armstrong is +3.3% and for Jon Smith Squire is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Armstrong: 50%, Jon Smith Squire: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Armstrong: 44%, Jon Smith Squire: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Armstrong: 2,450, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Jon Smith Squire: 1,432, level confidence: 78%.