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Paul Cooper v Ryan Bird (Thu 05 Dec 2013)

Match won by Ryan Bird. Result: 11-15,11-15,8-15.

Starting level for Paul Cooper: 1,140, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ryan Bird: 1,676, level confidence: 63%.
Ryan Bird to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Paul Cooper.

Ryan Bird won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Bird played 52% better than Paul Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Bird actually played at a level of 1,702 and Paul Cooper at a level of 1,122. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Bird changes to +1.3% and Paul Cooper changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Bird becomes +1.1% and for Paul Cooper becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Ryan Bird is +0.8% and for Paul Cooper is -0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Bird: 79%, Paul Cooper: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Bird: 78%, Paul Cooper: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Cooper: 1,130, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Ryan Bird: 1,687, level confidence: 78%.