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Steven Davies v Andrew Taylor (Thu 05 Dec 2013)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 11-4,11-9,7-11,5-11,11-9.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 4,815, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for Andrew Taylor: 3,648, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Andrew Taylor.

Steven Davies won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 8% better than Andrew Taylor in this match.

As Steven Davies has played below his allowed range at 4,235, his level reduction is 7.4% before damping. On the assumption that Steven Davies would normally have been playing at level 4,695 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.4% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to -6.4% and Andrew Taylor changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes -2.8% and for Andrew Taylor becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is -2.1% and for Andrew Taylor is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 65%, Andrew Taylor: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 59%, Andrew Taylor: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 4,758, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Andrew Taylor: 3,706, level confidence: 80%.