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Thomas Phipps v Adam Fuller (Thu 05 Dec 2013)

Match won by Adam Fuller. Result: 11-9,8-11,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Thomas Phipps: 6,640, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Adam Fuller: 7,312, level confidence: 68%.
Adam Fuller to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Thomas Phipps.

Adam Fuller won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Fuller played 30% better than Thomas Phipps in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Fuller actually played at a level of 7,943 and Thomas Phipps at a level of 6,112. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Fuller changes to +6.6% and Thomas Phipps changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Fuller becomes +2.5% and for Thomas Phipps becomes -3%.

Given Adam Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Thomas Phipps's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Adam Fuller is +1.8% and for Thomas Phipps is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Fuller: 82%, Thomas Phipps: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Fuller: 76%, Thomas Phipps: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Phipps: 6,492, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Adam Fuller: 7,429, level confidence: 76%.